SATSA CEO 2026 Outlook: A Year That Will Reward Clarity and Coordination

By David Frost, SATSA CEO

As the tourism sector looks ahead to 2026, it is increasingly clear that this is not simply another year of recovery. It is a transition point.

Demand is present. Growth signals are visible. South Africa remains a highly desirable destination. At the same time, the environment in which inbound tourism operates has become more interconnected, more exposed to external influences and less forgiving of fragmented decision-making than in previous cycles. How recovery is managed now will shape not only performance in the year ahead, but the sector’s resilience over the longer term.

Progress has been made, but recovery is not yet complete. The focus for 2026 must therefore move beyond momentum alone and centre on how the right levers are pulled to translate recovery into sustainable, long-term growth.

What the Data Is Really Telling Us: The Facts

Recent arrival data paint an encouraging picture at first glance, with strong year-on-year growth and, in some cases, total arrivals exceeding pre-pandemic levels. However, headline figures continue to mask a more uneven reality.

When benchmarked against 2019, overseas arrivals have not yet fully recovered. Between January and December 2025, recovery sits at 92% for the full year. A 11,9% increase on prior year is encouraging as we edge towards full recovery, however context always matters. 2019 was not South Africa’s strongest pre-pandemic year. In 2017, the country recorded 2,725,855 overseas arrivals, compared with 2,612,159 in 2019.

Performance across source markets remains uneven. The United States and Australia have recovered strongly, reaching 104,9% and 108.9% of 2019 levels respectively between January and December 2025. Several key European and Asian markets, however, continue to lag. Germany and France, South Africa’s third- and fourth-largest traditional source markets, have yet to fully recover, with Germany finally breaking the 90% recovery threshold and France lagging at 81,8% recovery.

Emerging markets such as India and China are performing abysmally, despite the introduction of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme in March 2025. India recovered to 72,9% in 2025 and China to 40,7%. There has been a slight decline month-on-month which shows that the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme is not making the strides it should be. This is a clear example of where all strategic imperatives need to be operating harmoniously to foster recovery and growth. We cannot remove visa red tape and not focus on air access or strategic marketing campaigns that speak to the nuances of these source markets.

Access SATSA's Inbound Tourism Data Analysis

Turning the Right Levers for Growth

One of the most critical levers for sustained growth remains air access. South Africa’s inbound tourism system is anchored by three primary gateways: OR Tambo International Airport, Cape Town International Airport and King Shaka International Airport. Together, these hubs support a growing base of long-haul connectivity, including approximately 5,000 direct seats into the country on carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways.

This connectivity presents a clear opportunity in the Gulf region. While still underdeveloped as a source market, the Gulf offers direct access, favourable flying times and strong spend potential across a range of experiences beyond safari. Its true value, however, is often underrepresented in arrival data, as many travellers residing in the region travel on foreign passports, masking the scale of demand originating from the Middle East.

Unlocking this potential will require focused engagement, product alignment and market-specific strategies, rather than reliance on traditional assumptions.

Recent performance illustrates the impact of improved air access. Brazil’s recovery accelerated following the reinstatement of direct flights by South African Airways and LATAM, with arrivals nearly doubling between 2023 and 2024. The introduction of LATAM’s São Paulo–Cape Town route in September 2026 is expected to further support growth beyond Brazil’s current 83% recovery level.

Ease of access is also improving in other strategically important markets. Indonesia and Mexico, alongside China and India, are now included in the Electronic Travel Authorisation framework. This is a constructive development for emerging markets.

However, access alone will not drive recovery. These markets require nuanced, behaviour-led strategies that reflect distinct travel patterns, distribution models and decision-making dynamics. A one-size-fits-all approach to market development has not delivered the desired results and will continue to limit impact if left unchanged.

It is also important to recognise that inbound tourism does not respond to short-term interventions. What is reflected in the data today is often the result of decisions taken 18 months earlier. This lag demonstrates the importance of forward planning, early alignment between public and private sector and market-specific strategies that are implemented with sufficient lead time to deliver meaningful impact.

Geographic Spread and Product Diversification as Strategic Imperatives

South Africa’s flagship destinations, including Cape Town and the Kruger region, will continue to play a central role in the country’s tourism offering. At the same time, industry data highlights the importance of broadening demand beyond a limited number of nodes. Some of SATSA’s larger destination management companies report that, on average, between 70% and 80% of their total turnover is generated from Cape Town and the Kruger alone.

Broadening itineraries in this way supports long-term resilience and helps ensure that the benefits of recovery are more evenly distributed across the country. Achieving this will require more than marketing activity. It calls for a shift in how itineraries are designed, sold and supported across the tourism value chain.

The industry must also continue to challenge the perception that South Africa is defined solely by safari. While wildlife remains a cornerstone of the country’s appeal, it represents only one element of a far more diverse tourism offering. South Africa’s adventure tourism portfolio spans more than 101 experiences across unspoilt regions, complemented by world-class wine and gastronomy, award-winning culinary experiences, exceptional golf, wellness tourism, stargazing, cultural and heritage tourism, and a globally recognised arts and creative scene.

There is further opportunity in rethinking the role of gateway cities within itineraries. Encouraging travellers to spend meaningful time in Johannesburg before transferring to safari regions can unlock value through cultural immersion, curated art experiences and a vibrant food scene. Similarly, integrating stargazing in the Northern Cape alongside more established destinations can lengthen stays, increase yield and support geographic spread.

Geographic spread is both a growth opportunity and a risk management necessity. Recent climate-related disruptions have highlighted the exposure created by over-reliance on a small number of tourism nodes, with flooding, fires and infrastructure strain carrying both immediate operational and longer-term reputational implications. Encouraging exploration of a wider range of regions, such as Madikwe, Pilanesberg and the Waterberg, helps distribute demand more evenly and supports broader economic benefit across the country.

Technology, Discovery and Changing Traveller Behaviour

Advances in artificial intelligence are also reshaping how travellers research destinations and plan their journeys. Increasingly, AI-driven tools are influencing itinerary design, experience discovery and decision-making.

This shift reinforces the importance of clear, accurate and well-structured destination information, as well as the need to present diverse, regionally rich itineraries that reflect how travellers are now searching and planning. How destinations are positioned and discovered is becoming as important as what they offer.

Managing Confidence in a Changing Environment

The global travel environment is shaped by a range of external influences, from weather-related events to broader geopolitical developments. For destinations, clear planning, coordinated responses and transparent communication play an important role in maintaining confidence and delivering positive visitor experiences.

Perception matters, but context is equally important. Providing accurate, consistent information through aligned communication across the sector helps travellers navigate change with confidence and supports long-term trust in the destination.

Why Collaboration Will Define 2026

No single business, destination or organisation can navigate these dynamics alone. Collaboration is no longer a goodwill exercise. It is strategic necessity.

In 2026, collaboration must be practical and outcomes-driven. This includes sharing market intelligence, aligning messaging, pooling resources for destination-led marketing, and working collectively on air access, visa facilitation, safety and infrastructure priorities. It also means supporting one another operationally when external factors disrupt normal business.

Experience has shown that when one part of the tourism value chain weakens, the impact is felt across the system. Collective action and aligned decision-making strengthen resilience, credibility and the sector’s ability to manage change.

A Year That Will Reward Clarity and Coordination

For inbound tourism businesses, 2026 will not simply be about responding to demand. It will reward those that interpret signals accurately, plan realistically and understand the broader ecosystem in which they operate.

The same principle applies to engagement with the public sector. Policy decisions, public messaging and implementation timelines carry real consequences for inbound tourism. Certainty, consultation and evidence-based planning remain essential to maintaining confidence and competitiveness.

SATSA remains committed to supporting, representing and advocating for its members as the year unfolds. Ultimately, the sector’s strength will be defined by how effectively it works together across regions, disciplines and competitive lines.

Recovery has created opportunity. The decisions taken now will determine whether 2026 delivers sustained progress and resilience or falls short of its potential.

Access SATSA's Inbound Tourism Data Analysis